Property data curator ATTOM released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024.
The report shows California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.
The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to the group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns, ATTOM said.
“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said in a release. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”
County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.
At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, D.C., area.
The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.
An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, ATTOM added.